The Trump Administration recently
imposed a new round of sanctions on the Iranian regime. The sanctions are said
to be some of the harshest in history. They are designed, among other things,
to convey a sense of shock to the populace so that they revolt against the
regime and put it under domestic pressure so that the regime, in addressing the
nation’s problems, is forced to concede to American demands, if not completely
toppled by a nationwide revolution. However, the regime uses a set of
“shock-absorbing” techniques to counter the sanctions:
1.
Creating
artificial hyperinflation in the months leading to the November 4th
sanctions. Quadrupling the price of foreign currency; increasing the price of
domestic staples such as meat and grocery; making simple items unavailable on
the market. That is while no strong sanctions had still gone into effect. By
that the regime used the “frog in the boiling water” technique to acclimatize
the populace to scarcity in order to absorb the shock of the coming sanctions.
That is why we are not witnessing any serious popular uprising against the
regime now.
2.
Using currency
and gold reserves to artificially flood and relieve the market after the
sanctions had gone into effect. You can mention that foreign currencies were
reported to experience a price drop after November 4. Explain that since the
national treasury is completely at the disposal of the regime/Revolutionary
Guards, they can easily decrease, stop or increase the trickle into the market,
by that creating artificial economic conditions to mislead the people. And the
regime has enough conduits to launder money around the world to be able to
sustain itself at home.
3.
Suppressing
general strikes and other peaceful popular movements through sophisticated
techniques. For instance, explain the truckers’ and the sugar cane company
workers’ strikes. The regime lets them go on strike and continue for a few weeks;
outlaws their strike and announces it on judiciary, police and state-run media
outlets; blames the strikers for the general populace’s suffering due to lack
of service and scarcity; combs the strikers and pushes a section of them to
break rank; and eventually negotiates with the remaining strikers for slightly
better work conditions.
As long as the regime maintains the
ability to control the economy and suppress strikes and other kinds of popular
movements, the sanctions are not likely to produce shock effects that spur the
populace to push the regime to comply with American demands. Therefore, if
things stand as they are now, what will ensue will be a war of attrition with
no end in view.
The mullahs have all the time in the
world. They can lie low for a while and bide their time. On the other hand, the
Trump Administration, as a government in a democratic system that regularly holds
elections on a periodic basis, has only a limited amount of time to implement
its planned measures against the greatest state sponsor of terrorism. As such,
the administration needs to consider a wide range tactics, perhaps more
confrontational and aggressive, if it wants to get real results.
